Archive

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 16, 2014 · 12:10 PM EDT

Republicans are at virtually no risk of losing their House majority in November, but there is a little extra pressure to win a handful of key districts in order to avoid taking a step back in the number of women in the Republican conference.

Republicans have been on the defensive about their…

A National Election or a Localized One?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2014 · 4:30 PM EDT

Our House and Senate ratings continue to reflect state-level and district-level surveys, as well as the fundamentals of each contest. But as we all know, midterm elections sometimes become referenda on the sitting president. When that happens, if the electorate’s mood is angry and dissatisfied…

Putting House Expectations Into Context

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

“Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal,” according to a Politico piece, “Halfway House: GOP falling short in midterms,” published earlier this month.

“From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be a…

Democratic Hopes Shine Brighter in Gubernatorial Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:28 PM EDT

Some of the best news of the election cycle for Democrats continues to be in gubernatorial races.

With the Senate majority in a precarious position and trying to stem further losses in the House, Democrats have the opportunity to capture a handful of governorships, including big states such as…

2014 House Ratings (September 12, 2014)

September 12, 2014 · 4:26 PM EDT

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 11, 2014 · 1:02 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I noticed a piece in Time headlined “The Best 6 Political Campaign Ads of the Summer (So Far).”

I’ve written columns about “the best” this or “the worst” that, so I’m certainly not opposed to columns that list personal assessments or even personal preferences. But my reaction…

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations

by Stuart Rothenberg September 10, 2014 · 10:56 AM EDT

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands…

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

by Stuart Rothenberg September 9, 2014 · 9:45 AM EDT

Politics is mostly about both parties regurgitating well-established positions (on taxes, the environment, abortion and spending, for example) to appeal to base voters and demonize their opponents. But every so often, candidates from one party try a dramatically new message.

That’s what is…