Inside Elections

2014 Senate Ratings (November 1, 2014)

November 1, 2014 · 2:49 PM EDT

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 10:52 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S. Truman.

Truman lost a…

Think more competitive House races would help? They might actually make things worse.

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 31, 2014 · 2:34 PM EDT

Here’s the rare idea about which both Democrats and Republicans agree: Way too few members of Congress emerge from competitive House races — and it’s causing problems.

“Put congressional reform atop the national agenda,” wrote David Brooks recently. “More states could have open primaries.…

A Nerve-Wracking Finish for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg October 30, 2014 · 3:34 PM EDT

How big of a year is this going to be for Republicans? It’s still hard to tell, one week before voters go to the polls for the midterm elections.

But it could be bigger than you think.

Republicans have a plethora of House and Senate opportunities, and given President Barack Obama’s standing…

Senate Outlook: Advantage to Republicans

by Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Five Senate seats look increasingly like they will be keys to what kind of election the two parties will have this year.

The GOP looks poised to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If they do that and hold all of their own, they…

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republicans are going to add to their majority in the House. But even though Election Day is just days away, it’s unclear how many seats the party will add.

President Barack Obama’s mediocre job approval rating has cast a shadow over the entire House landscape and has Democrats on the defensive…

Be Skeptical of Exit Poll Leaks on Election Day

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

There are few certainties in life: death, taxes, and someone purporting to have exit poll numbers before the polls close on Election Day. But here’s a word to the wise: If you hear or read about exit poll data before 5pm on Election Day, don’t believe them.

Mining for exit poll data is an…

Governors on the Defensive as Close Races Go Down to the Wire

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

The extraordinary number of very close races is not limited to contests for the House and Senate. The electoral environment is volatile, and a large number of tight and competitive gubernatorial contests leaves open the possibility of a wide range of outcomes.

On one hand, nearly a dozen…

2014 Senate Ratings (October 29, 2014)

October 29, 2014 · 3:56 PM EDT

2014 House Ratings (October 29, 2014)

October 29, 2014 · 3:55 PM EDT