Archive

New Poll Numbers Reinforce Bush-Obama Comparisons

by Stuart Rothenberg August 7, 2014 · 9:31 AM EDT

My last column, which argued President Barack Obama’s situation going into his second midterm closely resembled President George W. Bush’s standing going into his second midterm, is reinforced in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

When I filed the column on Monday, I used the NBC…

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

by Stuart Rothenberg August 7, 2014 · 9:30 AM EDT

I certainly didn’t know foreign policy would be front and center in the final months before the midterm elections when I wrote in late April that these issues “could have an indirect yet significant impact on the midterm elections.”

But now, it looks increasingly as if foreign policy —…

Instead of Waves, Dems Looking to Make a Splash in Big Gubernatorial Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 1, 2014 · 3:03 PM EDT

Democrats are looking at a very rough cycle in the House and a potentially disastrous outcome in the Senate, but gubernatorial races might offer some rare bright spots on Election Night.

Unlike the Senate playing field, Democrats have a large number of offensive opportunities in gubernatorial…

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Alabama - Illinois

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 1, 2014 · 3:02 PM EDT

ARIZONA -- Open; Jan Brewer (R), term-limited. August 26 primary.
The crowded Republican race to replace Brewer is coming down to two candidates: State Treasurer Doug Ducey and former GoDaddy.com General Counsel Christine Jones. Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, and four…

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Iowa - New Mexico

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 1, 2014 · 3:01 PM EDT

IOWA -- Terry Branstad (R), elected 2010 (53%); elected 1982 (53%), 1986 (52%), 1990 (61%) and 1994 (57%).
Any Democratic hopes of defeating Gov. Branstad with state Sen. Jack Hatch are quickly fading away. Most of the political oxygen in the state is focused on the open seat Senate race between…

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) New York - Wyoming

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 1, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

OHIO -- John Kasich (R), elected 2010 (49%).
Gov. Kasich started the cycle near the top of every Democratic target list and he struggled at the beginning of his term when a statewide initiation repeal his effort to restrict collective bargaining. But Kasich reversed course, backed Medicaid…

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

by Stuart Rothenberg July 30, 2014 · 10:29 AM EDT

The thought of three candidate interviews over a four-hour period invariably fills me with dread.

The chance of all three congressional hopefuls being thoughtful, reasonable and personable — and having a good chance of winning in the fall — is relatively small.

But sometimes the unexpected…

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 29, 2014 · 10:16 AM EDT

New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer laid out his dream for a less partisan Washington recently. But the Democrat’s New York Times op-ed is giving some strategists in his own party nightmares.

“Polarization and partisanship are a plague on American politics,” Schumer wrote in the piece — titled,…

Montana Senate Moves to Lean Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg July 24, 2014 · 2:00 PM EDT

As Roll Call was preparing to post my column yesterday on the Montana Senate race and recent Democratic polls showing the contest “closing,” a report surfaced in the New York Times about appointed Senator John Walsh’s plagiarism in his master’s thesis.

The Walsh story is a huge one and…