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Context for Facebook Chatter About Presidential Candidates

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 21, 2015 · 9:48 AM EDT

Millions of people have talked about the presidential contenders on Facebook as they officially launch campaigns. But despite some gaudy numbers, context and limits of the data cast doubt on the impact Facebook conversations will have on the race.

In the 24 hours surrounding Florida Sen. Marco…

The What Ifs of the 2016 GOP Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2015 · 9:28 AM EDT

If Jeb Bush doesn’t win any of the first four GOP contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — does that eliminate him from the Republican race? Or does he have the staying power to survive those losses?

If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finishes first in the Iowa caucuses, does that all but…

Senate Overview: Retirements and Primaries Matter for Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 17, 2015 · 3:04 PM EDT

A year and a half before Election Day, the battle for the Senate is well underway.

GOP strategists are spending the first part of the cycle encouraging their incumbents to run for re-election while Democratic strategists are recruiting challengers to vulnerable Republican senators running for…

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) Alabama - Kansas

April 17, 2015 · 3:03 PM EDT

ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). The only mystery is what Shelby will do with the $18 million in his campaign account when he doesn’t have a serious race. Safe GOP.

ALASKA – Lisa Murkowski (R) appointed Dec. 2002, elected 2004 (49%),…

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) Kentucky - New Mexico

April 17, 2015 · 3:02 PM EDT

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). Paul announced his presidential campaign earlier this month but is planning to simultaneously run for re-election. Paul’s allies in the Legislature have been unable to change state law, which would prohibit him from doing that. But the GOP state central…

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) New York - Wyoming

April 17, 2015 · 3:01 PM EDT

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). It took Schumer a few hours to wrap up the leadership race after Harry Reid announced his retirement. Now, Schumer will run for re-election and be the next Democratic leader in the Senate. The only question is whether he will…

The Young and the Restless of 2016

by Stuart Rothenberg April 16, 2015 · 12:36 PM EDT

Once upon a time, presidential candidates were expected to have more than passing experience in government, as well as the maturity and wisdom that sometimes come with age. But that has changed, apparently.

Barack Obama was in the United States Senate for only two years before he began his bid for…

Wyden Looks Safe, but Democratic Rift Is Real

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 13, 2015 · 9:39 AM EDT

Liberal groups have targeted Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden for defeat in next year’s elections unless he sides with them on upcoming trade deals. But any talk about the four-term Democrat’s vulnerability is premature until there is a challenger.

“Secretive Trade Deal Could Pose Problems At Home For Ron…

Adding Context to GOP Gains at State Level

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

This week’s effort to mislead, hoodwink and generally pull the wool over our eyes comes courtesy of the Republican State Leadership Committee. “Blue States Bleeding Red” was written by RSLC President Matt Walter and appeared on Townhall.com Sunday.

Republicans made great gains at the state and…