House News & Analysis

Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2018 · 3:15 PM EDT

Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.

Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already…

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2018 · 9:30 AM EDT

The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/illinois-general-election-match-ups-set-november ;

Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, Democrats still need a net gain of 23 seats to win the…

Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg March 16, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The results in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District confirm problems for Republicans.

The size of the Democratic general election wave is still unclear, but something is happening. Districts won comfortably by President Donald Trump in 2016 are more competitive now, which suggests that districts won by Hillary Clinton…

12 Thoughts Without Even Knowing Who Won in Pennsylvania

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 14, 2018 · 12:10 AM EDT

The special election race for Pennsylvania's 18th District is too close to call, but many of the takeaways are the same, no matter if Democrat Conor Lamb or Republican Rick Saccone ultimately prevails. 

There will be plenty of hot takes and takeaways about the impact of President Donald Trump…

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans.

The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have…

Texas Primaries: Democratic Fields Come Into Focus

March 9, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

After months of speculation, the 2018 midterm elections are officially underway with initial primaries in Texas. 

There’s more evidence of a Democratic surge previously seen in Virginia and in special elections around the country, but also the reality that some of the swarm of Democratic candidates aren’t even going to…

Arizona 8 Special: Don’t Be Surprised

March 9, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Republican Rep. Trent Franks resigned his seat in the midst of #MeToo movement and he will be replaced by a woman. But the recent special election primary wasn’t exactly smooth sailing for Republicans and the electoral trend across the country over the last year points to this Arizona 8th District…

Candidate Conversation - Stelian Onufrei (R)

March 9, 2018 · 2:26 PM EST

California’s 48th District - Rating: Tilt Republican

Interview Date: Feb. 20, 2018

Date of Birth: Feb. 28, 1965; Dej, Romania

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: A lot of things would need to go right for Onufrei to win. First, he needs to finish in the top…

Candidate Conversation - Pete Stauber (R)

March 9, 2018 · 2:24 PM EST

Minnesota’s 8th District - Rating: Toss-Up

Interview Date: Feb. 14, 2018

Date of Birth: May 10, 1956; Duluth, Minn.

Education: Lake Superior State Univ. (1990)

Elected Office: St. Louis County Commission; Hermantown City Council (former) 

Current Outlook: Stauber is considered one of Republicans’ top recruits in the country. He still…

Ratings Update: Texas Primaries Narrow Democratic Fields

March 7, 2018 · 1:33 AM EST

After months of speculation, the 2018 midterm elections are officially underway with initial primaries in Texas. 

There's more evidence of a Democratic surge previously seen in Virginia and in special elections around the country, but also the reality that some of the swarm of Democratic candidates aren't even going to…