Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel…
North Carolina’s one remaining swing district looks headed for a photo finish at the presidential level, but Democrats in down-ballot races begin the fall with advantages, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
In the Tar Heel State’s 1st District,…
I used to be a debate skeptic. I was skeptical that debates changed the trajectory of elections. But after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in one of the most consequential debates in history on June 27 and considering the race between Trump and Vice President…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Ticket-splitting gets a lot of attention but it’s increasingly rare and could come to define the 2024 elections.
Looking at survey data in more than 50 competitive Senate and House races around the country, the trend is alignment of the presidential race…
Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Whether it’s statewide surveys or snapshots in competitive House districts, it’s clear that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has the edge over GOP former local news anchor/2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. It looked like Lake had a better…
Alaska.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%. Republican Nick Begich struggled to fundraise for much of the primary, and now outside groups are coming in to bolster him with positive advertising ahead of the general election. The NRCC is also airing negative ads against…
Indiana. Open; Eric Holcomb (R) term-limited. Two recent Democratic polls, including one previously unreported, show a tight race between GOP Sen. Mike Braun and former state Superintendent of Education Jennifer McCormick (a former Republican). The race had previously seen some national attention…
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