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2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) Kentucky - New Mexico

January 9, 2015 · 1:32 PM EST

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). After knocking off establishment favorite Trey Grayson in the 2010 GOP primary and Democrat Jack Conway in the general election, Paul is up for re-election. But the senator has his eye on a bigger prize: the presidency. 

Under Kentucky law, candidates…

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) New York - Wyoming

January 9, 2015 · 1:31 PM EST

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). Some races are complicated; the one in New York is not. If Schumer runs for a fourth term, he will win. Safe for Democrats.

NORTH CAROLINA – Richard Burr (R) elected 2004 (52%), 2010 (55%). An official announcement isn’t on…

What Happened to The Rothenberg Political Report?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 9, 2015 · 8:30 AM EST

Growing up, I wanted to be a professional baseball player, or maybe a sportscaster if that didn’t work out. I didn’t know that being a political analyst was a viable occupation, or even an occupation at all.

In 1989, Stuart Rothenberg took over a small newsletter and built The Rothenberg Political…

Can Jeb Bush Win the GOP Nomination?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 7, 2015 · 12:42 PM EST

I was surprised at the steps that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has taken toward entering the GOP presidential race.

I expected family considerations and his aversion to a nasty and prolonged race for the nomination to keep him out of the contest. Certainly, he’d like to be president, and there are…

Republican to Retire from Competitive House Seat in New York

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 5, 2015 · 10:31 PM EST

GOP Rep. Chris Gibson of New York is set to announce his retirement on Tuesday, according to two Republican sources. 

Gibson won re-election in November in convincing fashion with a 65 percent to 35 percent victory over self-funding Democrat Sean Eldridge. But the open seat should be extremely…

Very Early Handicapping on Special Election in New York’s 11th District

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 2, 2015 · 3:08 PM EST

For political operatives, reporters and junkies there isn’t a more appropriate way to kick off a new year and new election cycle than a special election in New York.

Special elections in the Empire State have became a nearly-annual affair. And thanks to GOP Rep. Michael G. Grimm’s resignation, New…

Beltway View Clashes with District Dynamic in Illinois’ 12th

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2014 · 4:00 PM EST

Inside the Beltway, Mike Bost was the unhinged Republican known for his rant on the floor of the Illinois Legislature and for shooting a caged beagle. So how did he defeat a Democratic incumbent by more than 10 points?

What looked like an angry liability to many Washington, D.C. observers was…

Loss Puts Terry in Exclusive Club

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2014 · 3:59 PM EST

It takes quite a feat for a Republican congressman to lose re-election in the middle of a historically-good election for the GOP. But that’s exactly what Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Florida Rep. Steve Southerland pulled off in 2014. 

Nearly 99 percent of all GOP incumbents seeking re-election in…

What Kind of Race Would Russ Feingold Run in 2016?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2014 · 9:27 AM EST

Former Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., isn’t ruling out trying to get his former seat back this cycle. But it’s unclear how good of a campaign he will run.

Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore told Roll Call’s Alexis Levinson last week she expects Feingold to wage a rematch against GOP Sen. Ron…