Archive

Who Will Benefit From the Issues Mix in 2016?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 17, 2015 · 8:55 AM EDT

Every election is different, but they almost always come down to one question: What is the election about?

Some elections are about one or both of the candidates (personality, preparedness or accomplishments), while others are merely about “change.” Some are about the economy in general, or jobs…

Bernie Sanders: The Latest Version of Howard Dean

by Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders’ poll numbers in New Hampshire have reporters taking notice and progressive Democrats excited: Bernie is surging!

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, if you believe the 73-year-old Vermont independent-turned-Democratic presidential hopeful.

“We are going to win…

The Donald Trump Impact: Not so Inevitable After All

by Stuart Rothenberg July 8, 2015 · 8:45 AM EDT

I was surprised by the near unanimity over the weekend about the impact of the Donald Trump comments about Mexican immigrants. Almost every disinterested political observer agreed Trump’s typically over-the-top remarks were certain to hurt GOP prospects in the 2016 presidential election.

I am…

Heck’s Decision Prompts Rating Change in Two Nevada Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2015 · 11:00 AM EDT

Republican Rep. Joe Heck’s decision to run for the Senate is no surprise, but now that he is officially in the race, we are changing our rating in two Nevada races. 

The race for Democratic Sen. Harry Reid’s open seat was already competitive, but Republican chances improve slightly with Heck’s…

North Carolina Senate: Life After Hagan

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2015 · 2:30 PM EDT

Democrats lost a whopping nine Senate seats in 2014, but few hurt more than North Carolina. At least the party doesn’t have to wait long before trying to avenge that defeat. 

Over the last few years, the Tar Heel State and its GOP-led Legislature has become a symbol of Republican overreach to…

Pennsylvania 6: Suburban Districts Elude Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2015 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s hard to see how Democrats get anywhere near a House majority again without gaining ground in suburban and exurban districts. But the party’s difficulty in a trio of districts in Southeast Pennsylvania is a prime example of Democrats’ challenge. 

The Republicans’ grip on the 6th, 7th, and 8th…

When the Second Time Isn’t the Charm

by Stuart Rothenberg July 2, 2015 · 8:30 AM EDT

I feel bad for Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry. They are presidential retreads at a moment when anything that is more than an hour or two old is passé.

John McCain was a retread in 2008 (having lost a bid for the GOP nomination in 2000), as was Mitt Romney four years later. Ronald…

Does Scott Walker Have What It Takes to Win in 2016?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2015 · 10:37 AM EDT

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is widely viewed as a top-tier hopeful for the GOP presidential nomination. But it’s less clear he has the right profile to knock off the likely Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Walker’s strength in the nomination race comes from his…