Inside Elections

2016 House Ratings (January 14, 2016)

January 14, 2016 · 3:59 PM EST

Can Rubio Win Even If He Loses?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 13, 2016 · 10:25 AM EST

Can a candidate win the Republican presidential nomination without winning one of the first three contests – Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina? We may just find out this year.

History, of course, has already provided something of an answer. Democrat Bill Clinton didn’t win a contest in 1992…

Obama’s Empty Campaign Threat on Gun Control

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 12, 2016 · 1:56 PM EST

In the heat of his push for more gun control, President Barack Obama threatened to withhold support from anyone, including Democrats, who didn’t support “common-sense” changes. But based on the political realities of this cycle, his comments aren’t likely to dramatically impact Senate races.

“Even…

Ohio 8: The Quiet Fight to Succeed Boehner

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:30 PM EST

Anti-establishment conservatives couldn’t get one of their own elected Speaker of the House after John Boehner decided to call it quits, but can they take over his western Ohio congressional district?

Boehner was consistently challenged with keeping the House Republican conference from going…

New York 22: Hanna Departure Leaves Vulnerable Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:29 PM EST

Moderate GOP Rep. Richard Hanna of New York announced his retirement shortly before Christmas, leaving his competitive 22nd District behind for Republicans to defend. 

The news shouldn’t of come as a complete surprise. He is a 64-year-old father of two kids under the age of 10 and is personally…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: North Carolina

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:28 PM EST

A Democratic presidential nominee has won North Carolina just once in the last 40 years, but the Tar Heel State is now firmly planted among the broader group of swing states. 

The results of the 2008 elections ignited the narrative that North Carolina is a purple-colored swing state. That was the…

New York 3: Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:27 PM EST

Former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Steve Israel spent years defending competitive open seats, but now his retirement leaves one behind.

Israel announced Tuesday he would not seek re-election in November after 16 years in the House. His retirement wasn’t a complete…

Report Shorts (January 8, 2016) Alabama, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

January 8, 2016 · 3:26 PM EST

Alabama Primary Elections. At the end of September, GOP Rep. Martha Roby had $734,000 in campaign funds while her opponent was over $2,000 in debt. But allies of the congresswoman and fellow Rep. Bradley Byrne are watching their March 1 primaries closely. 

On paper, Roby’s 2nd District race…

2016 House Ratings (January 8, 2016)

January 8, 2016 · 3:25 PM EST

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

by Stuart Rothenberg January 8, 2016 · 9:34 AM EST

Barry Ritholtz, a financial planner and asset manager, writes a regular column in The Washington Post’s business section. I read him religiously, and his last column of 2015, on financial prognosticators, offered important observations for anyone interested in politics, sports or Wall Street.

I…