Archive

Trump’s Electoral Math Doesn’t Add Up

by Stuart Rothenberg March 16, 2016 · 10:26 AM EDT

Republican front-runner Donald Trump is asked repeatedly about polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton badly in the general election. He always says the same thing: other polls show him winning, and Clinton will be very easy to defeat.

Is Trump merely blowing smoke, or could he re-draw the…

Democratic Senate Takeover Probable, If Cruz or Trump Nominee

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2016 · 9:01 AM EST

With Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz seemingly positioned to fight it out for the Republican presidential nomination, Democrats are now poised to take over the Senate in November.

The two Republicans still in the race who could help their party’s Senate prospects, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and…

6 Districts Where the Fight for the House and President Converge

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 7, 2016 · 9:10 AM EST

It’s going to be hard for most House races to get any attention this year, with a competitive presidential race and the fight for control of the Senate. But a handful of districts have the luxury of not only hosting a competitive House race, but also being swing areas of presidential battleground…

2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over Fight for the Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 4, 2016 · 3:00 PM EST

Twelve months ago, no one imagined billionaire Donald J. Trump would be in firm control of the Republican Party’s presidential nominating process. And the past year is peppered with handicapping mistakes as everyone tried to fit Trump into historical election molds. 

On the surface, Trump looks…

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Alabama - Kansas

March 4, 2016 · 2:59 PM EST

ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). Shelby turned back a serious primary challenge from Jonathan McConnell on Tuesday, 65-28 percent. The senator’s allies were concerned that Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would turn out a crowd of…

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Kentucky - New Mexico

March 4, 2016 · 2:58 PM EST

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). May 17 primary. Paul dropped his run for president after the Iowa caucuses and is finally focused on running for re-election. He shouldn’t have a problem, considering Kentucky’s serious Republican lean in federal elections. But his presidential run gives…

2016 Senate overview (March 4, 2016) New York - Wyoming

March 4, 2016 · 2:57 PM EST

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). April 14 filing deadline. June 28 primary. Schumer ($24 million on Dec. 31) will win a fourth term. The only question is whether he will be the majority or minority leader in the next Congress. Safe for Democrats.

NORTH…

Four Early Lessons From the Presidential Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 4, 2016 · 2:56 PM EST

Republicans and Democrats are still sorting through their presidential primaries, but there are already a handful of lessons to be learned.

The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders loves to claim that the people with the most money control our elections.…

The Case for a Crowded Field to Defeat Trump

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 3, 2016 · 9:25 AM EST

It’s too late to defeat Donald Trump, at least in the primaries. It’s too late for Republicans to unify behind a single Trump alternative. Now it’s a group effort to take down the celebrity businessman.

For the last nine months or so, the talk about the Republican presidential primary was about…