Inside Elections

2016 Gubernatorial Ratings (May 19, 2016)

May 19, 2016 · 2:48 PM EDT

Don’t Assume Paul Ryan Will be Speaker Next Year

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2016 · 9:00 AM EDT

Stu and I have been working together for nearly 15 years and any acute political instincts I’ve developed I owe to him. In many ways, we’ve morphed into the same mind, including our valuations of players in fantasy baseball. But after reading Stu’s column, “Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until…

Why House Democrats Need Trump to be President

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 16, 2016 · 9:00 AM EDT

Some Democrats are downright giddy about facing Donald Trump and his sizable unfavorable ratings in November. But the party may need to lose the presidential election in order to have a chance of controlling the House at some point over the next decade.  

If Hillary Clinton is elected president…

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage

by Stuart Rothenberg May 13, 2016 · 9:30 AM EDT

The warnings about jumping to conclusions about November are widespread.

I’ve heard that it’s early in the presidential race and that we underestimated Donald Trump last time so we should be careful now. I’ve also heard that Trump’s strength with working-class whites could change the electoral…

Why California Members Embrace Incumbent Ballot Designation

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 10, 2016 · 10:08 AM EDT

With congressional job approval hovering in the low teens, giving incumbents the opportunity to choose three words to describe themselves, and to refer to their current office, might seem like asking them to choose the words for their tombstone. But it’s a biennial tradition for the California…

Donald Trump is the GOP Nominee. Now What?

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2016 · 10:00 AM EDT

Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016.  

Looking back for the answer to “How did we get here?” and forward to handicapping the general election, one word stands out: assumptions.

There was an assumption that once voters were reminded of any number of ways Donald Trump…

How Trump Gives Republicans a Chance to Hold Senate

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2016 · 9:59 AM EDT

While it may have been unthinkable to say twelve, nine, or even six months ago, Republicans couldn’t afford to not nominate Donald Trump for president. 

After winning Indiana and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz dropping out, the wealthy businessman will secure a majority of delegates before the Republican…

Colorado Senate: Republicans Struggle to Keep Bennet in Play

May 5, 2016 · 9:58 AM EDT

The crowded GOP field to take on Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet narrowed recently from a dozen candidates to three contenders. 

Former El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn was the only candidate to secure a position on the primary ballot at the state convention. It was a surprise boost of…

Illinois Senate: Kirk Downgraded to Lean Democratic

May 5, 2016 · 9:57 AM EDT

Nearly a year ago, we moved Republican Mark Kirk from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic. Over the last 12 months, there is little evidence that things have gotten any better for the senator and in fact the political climate may be getting much worse, prompting another ratings change. 

The…

Fresh Primary Results, Six Fresh Faces for Next Congress

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2016 · 9:56 AM EDT

A handful of recent primaries in relatively safe districts adds a half-dozen likely new Members to the 115th Congress next year. 

Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi was the first new Member after winning the March primary in Illinois’ 8th District, which leans Democratic. Now he’s not alone in a class…