Inside Elections

2018 House Ratings (March 27, 2017)

March 27, 2017 · 1:29 PM EDT

What I Learned About Polling From a Georgia House Survey

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 27, 2017 · 10:54 AM EDT

I was initially skeptical of a recent poll in the special election for Georgia’s 6th District, not because it utilized Interactive Voice Response, or IVR, technology or because it was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm or because a Democratic candidate was leading in a Republican-leaning district.…

Georgia 6 Special:Looking for a Fight

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

While some people are dreading the next elections, others are itching for a fight, and suburban Atlanta looks like ground zero for the next electoral battle. 

Democrats got knocked down in 2016, losing the White House and falling well short of expectations in the House and the Senate. But they’ve…

New Jersey Senate: Menendez Heading to Trial and Re-Election?

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s never good to be on trial for bribery and up for re-election at the same time, but that doesn’t mean Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is going to lose next year in New Jersey. 

On Monday, the United States Supreme Court declined to take up the senator’s federal corruption case, and the trial is…

Montana At-Large Special: Land of Second Chances

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

While all the special election attention is on Georgia’s 6th, where Democrats haven’t won a significant race in decades, President Donald Trump’s cabinet selections also opened up an at-large district 1,800 miles away in Montana, where Democrats have been successful as recently as last year. So why…

Ohio 16: Renacci Leaves Seat Open to Run for Governor

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

On Monday, Republican Rep. Jim Renacci announced his bid to become governor of Ohio, immediately beginning the race to replace him in Congress. 

Earlier this year, House Democrats announced an ambitious list of 59 takeover targets, but Renacci’s 16th District was not on it. And even now that the…

2018 House Ratings (March 24, 2017)

March 24, 2017 · 2:26 PM EDT

Looking for Clues From a 2005 Special Election in Ohio

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2017 · 3:27 PM EDT

Are Democrats in the early stages of their own tea party movement? It’s one of the biggest outstanding questions at this point in the cycle. But as we collectively look at the past for prologue, I don’t understand why our memories only go back eight years.

There was a time, not too long ago, when…

Senate Landscape Not as Rosy for the GOP as It Once Was

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2017 · 9:16 AM EDT

If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next year, maybe even more, if history is any guide.

But with Donald Trump in the White House, Republican prospects are much less certain.

That doesn’t mean the GOP can’t or…

Off-Year Governors Races Look Challenging for GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2017 · 10:00 AM EDT

Gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey will get plenty of attention this year, in part because of Donald Trump’s victory and the developing divisions in the two major parties.

Observers will be looking for possible signs that Trump’s “new” Republican Party is changing the political…