Archive

Podcast Episode 62: Holiday Mailbag with Nathan & Jacob

December 22, 2025 · 1:35 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin tackle tough end-of-the-year questions with a holiday mailbag episode. From the state of the midterm elections, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s electoral future, and each party’s recruitment holes in the fight for the House to the Roman Empire, Star Trek and the…

Wyoming Senate: Lummis Not Seeking Re-election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2025 · 4:38 PM EST

Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced she will not seek re-election to a second term in Wyoming. 

Lummis is the fifth Republican, and ninth senator overall, to be leaving the chamber. That’s nearly double the per-cycle average of five Senate open seats, going back to at least 1930. She joins…

North Carolina Senate: Tar Heel Target

by Jacob Rubashkin December 18, 2025 · 2:30 PM EST

It’s been 18 years since a Democrat won a Senate race in North Carolina. Even so, the Tar Heel State is the best chance Democrats have at flipping a seat next year — a clear sign of the difficult map facing Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his caucus.

But there’s at least one reason for…

New Jersey 11 Special: A Morris & Essex Mess

by Jacob Rubashkin December 18, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s victory in the New Jersey gubernatorial election last month triggered a special election for her 11th District, a wealthy, left-trending seat in North Jersey.

Once held by moderate Republicans Rodney Frelinghuysen and Dean Gallo, the 11th is now Democratic territory. With…

Report Shorts (Dec. 18, 2025)

December 18, 2025 · 2:28 PM EST

Maine’s 2nd District. Democratic State Sen. Joe Baldacci is moving toward a run for Congress. He commissioned a poll showing him trailing former Gov. Paul LePage, the likely GOP nominee, by just 1 point, and posted on Instagram days later that “This will be a fun campaign.” Baldacci is the younger…

Podcast Episode 61: “I Know Nothing About Anything But Politics” with Larry Sabato

December 11, 2025 · 3:33 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin cover the latest House and Senate election news and discuss the art of political analysis with the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, one of the most prominent analysts in the country. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Beginning to Look Like a Traditional Midterm

December 5, 2025 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political immortal, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm. 

There’s a perception…

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama - Iowa

December 5, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Filing deadline Jan. 23. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Open; Barry Moore, R, running for Senate. Trump 77%.
Former Rep. Jerry Carl is running for his old seat after losing a member-vs.-member primary to Moore last year. But he’s been…

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky - New York

December 5, 2025 · 2:28 PM EST

Kentucky. Filing deadline Jan. 9. Primary May 19.
6th District (Greater Lexington area) Open; Andy Barr, R, running for Senate. Trump 57%.
All three GOP candidates — former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, state Rep. Ryan Dotson, and state Rep. Deanna Frazier Gordon — have roughly equivalent war chests…